File : D2.4
Author : Antoon Visschedijk (TNO) et al.
Based on the TNO GHGco emission inventory (2000-2015), which was compiled in VERIFY WP2 (See also Deliverable 2.1) an estimation was made for the year t-1 (2018) emissions. Several methods were tested by applying an in-sample approach to the existing inventory. Effectively this means that we tested various regression methods or prediction options based on the emissions data for the years 2008-2012 to predict the year 2015 emissions. The methodologies which provide the best match with the real 2015 emissions were applied to the emissions timeseries 2010-2015 leading to predicted 2018 emissions. Next the 2018 emissions were gridded using a scaling approach by assuming the spatial distribution of the emissions by source sectors in 2018 to be similar as 2015. This results in a high resolution (~6 x 6km over central Europe) gridded inventory for 2018 (t-1), which is consistent with the 11-year timeseries (2005-2015) delivered previously. It includes anthropogenic emissions of CO2 (fossil fuel and biofuel separately) and the co-emitted species CO (fossil fuel and biofuel separately), NOx, CH4 and NMVOC. The methodology allows for immediate delivery for intermediate years (t-2, t-3) Although the title of this deliverable is “year -1 inventory”, the objective of this work is to support the pre-operational system of VERIFY. It is therefore necessary is to produce a complete time series from 2005 to year -1 to be used by the inversion. For this first year in the VERIFY cycle, the data for t-2 and t-3 are also produced and will be available on the data base at the end of August 2019.
Figure 1 : Projected t-1 (2018) emissions, relative to the 2015 emission
