File : D5.3
Authors: Han Dolman & Roxana Petrescu (VUA)
Emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) and removals from land, including both anthropogenic and natural fluxes, require reliable quantification, including estimates of uncertainties, to support mitigation action, especially under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of bottom-up and top-down anthropogenic and natural emissions data from all UNFCCC sectors in the European Union (EU27) and UK. The data integrates recent scientific emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models and summarizes GHG emissions and removals over the period 1990-2017. Bottom-up and top-down products are compared with UNFCCC national greenhouse gas inventory reports (NGHGI 2019) aiming at assessing differences for estimates of GHG anthropogenic/natural emissions and sinks. Whenever available, we present uncertainties, its propagation and role in the comparison of different estimates. While NGHGI data for EU27+UK provides quantification of uncertainty following the established IPCC guidelines, uncertainty in the estimates produced with other methods needs to account for both within model uncertainty and the spread from different model results (if available).
Figure 1 : Five-year average (2011-2015) CO2 land flux estimates (in Tg C) for EU27 + UK and five European regions (Northern, Western, Central, Southern and Eastern non-EU).
