File : D5.4
Author : A.M. Roxana Petrescu et al.
Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, including that of their trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. This study updates the two ESSD synthesis papers (deliverable D5.3) and provides updated estimates for all anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of CO2,CH4 and N2O emissions for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK) for the second year VERIFY data (2020) mostly up to 2019, derived from a combination of state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources and models.
Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of datasets involved, this study focuses on properly understand the differences between various datasets, in particular with regards to the less-well characterized fluxes from managed ecosystems. The work integrates recent emission inventory data, process-based ecosystem model results, data-driven sector model results, and inverse modelling estimates, over the period 1990-2018. BU and TD products are compared with European national GHG inventories (NGHGIs) reported under the UNFCCC in 2020 (2018 effective year), aiming to assess and understand the differences between approaches. As uncertainties in NGHGIs, we will use the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the Member States in 2020, following the IPCC guidelines.
Figure 1 : Five years average 2011-2015 and new 2013-2017 total CH4 emission estimates (incl. LULUCF) for EU27+UK and five European regions (North, West, Central, South and East non-EU)
